Home Trading Strategies Best Trading Opportunities (August 2019) Price Action Analysis

Best Trading Opportunities (August 2019) Price Action Analysis

Best Trading Opportunities (August 2019) Price Action Analysis

hey hey what’s up my friend so welcome back to the monthly market analysis for the month of August so for those of you who are new to this type of videos right what I do each man is I a video like this I share with you the best trading opportunities that I’m looking at for this month and how I’m looking to trade it and also along the way I share with you the trades that I took right the winners and the losers right am i taught process behind it so this way you kind of have kind of have an understanding right to how I treat the markets right based on the price action on the charts okay so without further ado let’s get started the first thing that I wanna kick off right is to share with you a few winners and losers that I had recently so this is the chart of Aussie yen you can see that this market was actually discussed in previous month market analysis and I was actually shot so let me share with you my top process you know to why I was you know looking to shot this market so usually with it when I put on a trade right I would like to ask myself a few questions number one what is the market structure so when I was looking at this chat asked myself what is the market structure of this chart right is it in the range is it in a downtrend is it in an uptrend so clearly in this case right number one the first question is that what is the market structure I realized that the trend is down so now that I know the trend is down right I want to be selling pullback selling rallies are i selling from an area of value so the second question I ask myself is is the price at an area of value number two is the price at and any way of value and area of value could be a resistance at swing high and a trendline that is those are examples of an area of value and in this case I noticed that this price over here right at this point the prices at this area of value right a previous support then it had a false breakdown lower then really all the a bit all the way up higher came back down then broke the pot over here okay then hit down lower and now become previous support now becomes resistance all right now I think it’s resistance so the price is an area of value so that’s good right at resistance is call it our own and at question asked myself right is there a valid entry tricker so an entry trigger could be something simple like a reversal candlestick pattern to tell you that hey you know the sellers are momentarily in control and the price could possibly hit down lower right so just simple reversal candlestick patterns like no bearish engulfing bullish engulfing shooting star hammer etc so in this case what I had was a bearish engulfing pattern over here right in fact it’s what I call a falls break notice the price actually to cut this highs and this highs over here right why this is significant is because when the price breaks above the highs you can be sure that there will be traders looking to buy to break up because he thinks oh look how bullish this is right market is breaking on let me go along let me go along right and buy and when they go along above the break of the highs and the market does a hundred and eighty degree reversal how many times have you you know got got stuck in this type of price section right the market that’s 180-degree reversal alright you realized that you’re caught on the wrong side of the move right so this is where I went shot right when when the price did the falls break off the highs okay so I went shot on the next candle open which is this candle here okay this candle here I went shot this candle here right stop-loss is quite straight forward I simply set my stops one eighty are above this side so it is the some buffer right so my stop-loss is somewhere about here and if you think about this right the reason why I said set my stop loss and the level is because I’m setting my stop-loss above resistance but you have to understand that resistance it’s not a level on your chart it’s an area so this means the price can’t trade above resistance by three or four pips and then collapse back down lower that’s possible right because it’s not a level on your chart it’s an area so you gotta give it some buffer on your chart right such that even if the price spikes up by a few pips right you don’t get stopped out so this is the buffer that I’ve set right just one ATR just pull out the ATR indicator find out what’s one ATR and and onto this value of this highs over here okay so at this point in time I’m short right I hide my stop-loss and I’m looking at this trade and the market is in a downtrend so how am I looking to exit this trade so I noticed that this market right there is this swing low over here and I tell myself right that the price right should at least retest this swing area over here okay it should at least retest it so if the price does not retest that area right I already have my stops in place so I zero gonna hit me up for a loss of one R or it’s Elly’s gonna retest this this area and if it retest that area there’s a chance that the price might break down lower right and I want to hold on to the trade right for a swing down lower so I will hold on to the trade right and exit only if the price breaks and close above the previous candle high but first it has to retest this area touch this level first before I adopt any form of a trailing stop loss approach so you can see that this trick is an easiest one to hold because you notice at the price pretty much in a win against me for quite a bit in fact in last month’s video you notice that we talked about this build up over here right see there is this build up for me it’s not looking too good for me right and I might get stopped out i I said all those and the reason why I didn’t build out of my trade earlier is very simple it’s because my stop-loss is a logical level I have set my stop-loss above resistance about here and if the price has not reached this level yet then resistance is not broken and if resistance is not broken then why do I want to exit my trade earlier just to feel better just to reduce my loss minimize my loss no I have a plan and I followed the plan okay so my stop-loss is at this level right know that there is a build up form against me right I didn’t shift my stops I just live in there if I’m gonna get stopped up so be it and fortunately for me in this case right the price pretty much after which I break down okay you can see that over here this this at this point it has now retested this a swing area that I’m looking at this swing low okay and I’m and I’m using a trailing stop loss right where if the price breaks and close above the previous candle high I legs in the tree so in essence right this tree I’m just looking to capture this one swing now this one move down lower so you can see that the price hit now lower it at this candle at this point over here it brick and close above the previous day high and I exist at this trade of Ossian okay so hopefully this step-by-step explanation give you an idea you know to how and why and you know when I took this trip on Ossian so another tree that I took okay now just walk you through is the SNP so the SNP I’ll just give you a background picture if you look at this on the daily timeframe you notice that this SMP 500 is actually forming somewhat of a a build up at this highs over here okay previous resistance now become a previous resistance previous resistance now could become support alright so this is the big picture on the SMP daily time frame and if you pull out a 20 M II you notice that the price right has been no respecting the 20 ma and remaining above it so this is the big picture so what happened is that on the 4 hour time frame okay over here I went along on the phones break over here so this setup is actually quite similar to the Aussie yen just it’s the inverse it’s the long version of it so you can see it over here this is the area of support that you saw earlier on the telly time frame and there was a false breaker I noticed this move this bearish momentum move coming in to support okay price the King on this Louis take off this Louis take out this lows so traders right magically they shot the break now on market is so Barry’s let me go shot let me say alright let me catch a piece of the move next thing you know market did a 180 degree reversal closing strongly towards the upside this candle here so at this point and what this is right and I I saw this false breaking and I went long right next candle open I went along which is this candle here stop-loss again 180 are below this load which was about here so at this point right I am looking in this straight and again right I’m looking to write it that one move up by you after all the daily is in an uptrend we have a nice a volatility contraction and the market could explode up higher okay so I am looking to trim my stop-loss right on the previous day low on the daily timeframe in this case the market indeed when in my favor okay actually prior to this reversal right actually retested up to this highs and then it smashed down lower and then continued the decline all the way down so in this case right this is a losing trade for me right it’s a full one-hour loss on me for this particular SNP trade right because of the way and then I manage the trade right where I was a little bit more aggressive right one thing to let her treat run more since the higher time previous in in in but clearly in this case it went against me then I got stopped out all right so far other type of traders who are not looking to write the move right this could potentially be a winning trade for them because they would probably exist at rates right at this area over here where you know previous previous support I could get resistance right so this is a level where selling pressure could come in right and that’s a perfectly fine Erie right to set the target in profit and if that’s what I did right this would probably be a winning trade for them but not for me right because of gain as I’ve mentioned of the way I manage these three so just one last example before we kick off on this week’s market analysis I want to share with you it’s its goal okay go so go again I believe I covered this in last week’s last month’s video right we talked about the breakout of cool so if you look at go right a big picture right just zoom out you notice that goal is trading at a when you broke out over here and a multi-year high so this is the high setting in 2016 Friday you broke out over here in 2019 let me just zoom back right I think this is the highs over here in 2016 so it’s a multi-year high breakout and I didn’t catch the first wave of the moving segment cool broke out over here at this point I’m not in the trade I’m on a sight lines so ask myself right how can I get on board this train right I don’t be buying here so a lot of time so I trade us when they see a breakout they look at to buy the highs right because the fear of missing all right man piece of the move man you know it’s going to the mod is going to $2,000 I let me enter right now and the problem with this is if you could buy at this Heinz where are you going to set your stop loss right you’d want to be thinking how much money you can potentially make you always want to know how much you can potentially lose right so where are you gonna set your stop loss if you look at this chart now get basic technical analysis you know that your stops right you should go at least below below our support below us we go so in this case if you look at this chart right I would say this is a market structure this is an area of support over here price should at least go below this level maybe around the thirteen thirteen twenty five level around here so you can see that from the highs to a reasonable stop loss level is from here all the way down to somewhere here that’s a pretty done white stop-loss so I don’t want to be buying with such a huge storm loss so what I did is I let the market consolidate form a pullback right so I can’t have a logical place to set my stops so you can see that later on the price it did consolidate okay so at this point now okay I can actually reference my stop-loss from a few location when a price break out of this highs I can go along and now I can reference my stocks right from this swing low or if want to be more conservative even this swing low over here can you see now that I’ve market structured this one over here and this one over here right that could support up this higher prices whereas previously right I didn’t have this market structure earlier and on top of it right if you were to pull out the 20ma you notice that the the price right is above the twenty Emmy so that I guess another barrier right to support these higher prices right so now I got more factors going in my favor and that’s where I went along right I went on the brick of the highs of this house okay and stop-loss I reference this lo one ATR below it okay so that’s where I said my stop-loss about about here about here they’re about okay so this is where I enter on goal again I believe I covered this in last month’s market analysis I have a look at it if you want to see you know what I was talking about and this trick again isn’t the easiest trait to hole right it broke out Danny way against me okay when it gains me and finally no took off took off again so one thing – I don’t know highlight is that again right you can see that if you were to set your stops right okay this one you you probably would have gotten would have escaped this right so many times traders like to set their stops just below the low like this one just below the low in this case you you might or might not have got stopped and stopped up from the spike down towards this swing low so this is why I always say that I like to set my stops right just a buffer below a swing low or support resistance this gives gives my trade right more room to breathe and I don’t get stopped up so easily so anyway now go uh seems to be working fine and the way I’m drilling my stops is quite simple so this to me is in an uptrend right market could continue higher I have no idea how high you go I’m just using a simple three ATR as my trailing stop loss so this this black blue line is simply a three times the average True Range from this highs okay so this is a volatility based trailing stop loss I’m using 380 R to write this so-called medium term trend on goal okay so hopefully that gives you an idea to this a particular trading setup so anyway moving on right let’s let’s talk about the opportunities that I’m looking at this month the first market that I want to talk about is a brand crude oil so Brent crude oil okay notice that the price we have a breakdown of this area of support right this area of support right okay let me just walk you through right you can see that this is an area of support okay test that once twice then price broke down and now previous support becomes what resistance okay previous support becomes resistance so at this point right this is an area of value number one if the trend is down number two you are trading from your area of value and number three are looking for is an entry trigger okay so what is the entry trigger that I’ll be looking for so there are many ways to it right again for example you can look for a price rejection where the price hits up higher then closed lower near the lows that’s one possibility another one where you can look at this a multiple time frame analysis right if you look at a 12 hour time frame you’ll see that this market right on this two hour time frame seems to be in an uptrend higher highs and higher lows over here here here okay so what I’m looking for as an entry trigger is to have a lower high and lower low before I enter the tree so for example you could come down lower here very breakdown okay when it breaks this swing low now at this point I have a lower high and lower low and this tells me that hey you know selling pressure is coming in and the price could possibly hit down lower and that’s not all right on top of it right I’m training from an area of value and the higher time frame is in a downtrend okay so again you can you see how all this these pieces are coming together I’m not just selling just because there’s a lower high or low no there’s a story to it right okay I said multiple time frame analysis to it okay so this is how I’m looking to trade Brent crude oil and if that happens right I’ll set my stop loss again 180 are from this highs okay so this is Brent crude oil and if there’s an entry trigger and I’m sure right again this trip management will be similar to the Aussie and I’m expecting price to at least retest this level here first at least retest this level and if it does I would then a heavy trailing stop loss using the previous Kendall hi okay so this is Brent crude oil another market to share with view it’s the tenure okay so this market is really in a beautiful uptrend in fact if you look at the board markets across the border and they’re all in an uptrend right now and let me ask you okay you want to be buying right now do you want to be buying so often right when traders they need freight trains ready find it they are always entering the tree – too late right wait but a time they buy the market is doing a reversal or a pullback so one trick that I’m gonna share with you to help you time your entry is to ask yourself right where is the area of value on the chart right where the market is trending there is always an area of value it could be the 20ma it could be the 50 MB it could be a trendline so in this case it’s a healthy trend and usually healthy trend the area of value is 350 MA right in this blue line over here notice that it tested once that’s the twice Christ did some almost a fourth time and there’s a good chance you could come back for a fifth time okay so at this point right I don’t want to be buying here I’d rather be buying in this hice why because historically this market the price action tends to retest near the 50 period moving average and if I only be buying at this highs my stop-loss right logically it has to go below the 50 ma and it’s good it’s a white stop-loss right so why would I want to do that when the pullback comes when the reversal comes there’s a good chance I’m gonna get squeezed gotta squeeze me so what I would rather do is to be patient let the market let the price come to you let it come to the area of value okay and on top of it I notice that this is actually a this area of resistance or swing high right could I guess support on top of it you have the confluence of this 50 period moving average so let the price come to you write this over here at this point it’s a much more favorable trade location to be trading from right if you can enter based on the break off structure on a lower timeframe you can enter based on a reversal candlestick pattern on a daily timeframe in right there are different ways to enter the trade but a key thing that I wanna share is you know trait from an area of value if Tyler stop loss and you know you have more so-called profit potential like let’s say you enter near this level your profit potential to be here to at least this highs over here okay and you’re stops possibly maybe from here to here pretty decent ways to reward okay so trait from an area of value right so this is one technique to to help you time your entry right so you’re you’d always entered your trades too late so now let me share with you another example at this point you know you look here you don’t be buying at this highs right again where is the area of value right could be at this previous resistance that support or the 50 ma let the price come to you see much more favorable trade looking over here so this is something to share with you and just one last thing before we conclude today’s uh this this month’s market analysis alright the pound against the Swiss franc so in this case right again you can see just zoom on right in this market it’s a in a strong downtrend right price broke below this area of support let me just just zoom out okay price broke below this area of support okay and it pretty much has been collapsing since then at this point again right I don’t want to be selling yet because I just don’t have a logical place to set my stop loss so ask myself where is the area of value but the more on I know the trend is down number two where is the area of value now a couple of area of value from what I’m seeing number one is this right previous support deco against resistance that’s one alternatively the 20ma is providing a pretty decent resistance as well market has been contained below it so one way is for the 20ma to catch up right and price either pullback up higher okay 20ma catch up at this point right now you have somewhat of a pullback to look to short this market right so if the market breaks below this swing low you can now reference this level this swing low to send your stop-loss right again improves your risk to reward on the trade alright so this is the pound against the Swiss franc another market that I’ll be watching closely and uh you know by the way I’m also showing a pound yen right so for those of you who are who are trading multiple correlated markets like a pound especially it’s trending strongly you want to watch your risk because if you raise one percent on Pony and one percent on pound dollar one percent on pound Swiss franc if the pound were to you know appreciate right all three or four positions of yours are it’s coming you know move strongly against you so so watch out for there is one one tip I can share with you is to divide norisse if you usually raise let’s say one percent on each trade and you want to trade two pound pairs you can risk 0.

5 percent and 0.5 percent on each trade okay now if you’ve enjoyed the market analysis right now I want to welcome you to join pro traders age right this is my premium membership right where you will get such market analysis every single week all right I usually publish this type of videos on a weekend to share with you my my insights of the market the trading opportunities I’m looking at the trades I took and much more so that’s not all right because as a pro traders each member you get many benefits that come along with it so for example you have access to the backtest research lab so this is a lab right where I pretty much back test the financial markets to tell you what works and what don’t in the financial markets so we have a different stuff going on we have you know things that promote stock markets quantitative trading and much more so all this over here in the backtest research lab and i regularly you know adding new lessons new findings that i have in the financial markets then also we have the weekly trade alerts this is basically right the video that you have seen earlier but it’s on a weekly basis so every single week i publish such videos right so you can see my analysis my top process the trade side too and you can you know shorten your learning curve and quickly you know level up your trading so you can see that you know every week we publish a new video on the markets and moving on right we have a forum coming soon so for those of you who who are watching this right now the forum might already be up okay so this is a coming soon we have a premium trading strategy guys this is for you right you know especially if you enjoy reading my blog post and you want a pdf version of it so every month we upload new PDF trading strategy guys use it’s a free for you to download you can just click on it right and you will be brought to a PDF PDF link a PDF page to download it we a exclusive training webinars for you to you know to help you know level up your trading learn new trading strategies and techniques ok these are exclusive webinars that you will not find elsewhere then we have you know a trading books and investing books that I recommend trading checklist right so before you put on a trade you can you know download this checklist to reef review it right to make sure that you know you’re on the on the right side on the right page right and not doing anything funny or silly right we have the proprietary trading indicators volt this is for mt4 users you can download all this indicators to you know help you with your own trading let you know the MACD mt4 there’s some issue with it we have fixed it over here we have the dungeon channel a news reporter that alerts to you know potential you know important news that’s coming up and much more all over here in the indicator vault and also we have the simple mean reversion trading strategy that you’ll learn right to trade the market so this is a very simple strategy for you to get started especially you know if you do not know which strategy to go with start with this simple mean reversion trading strategy because it is a test that back tested right to identify first and foremost which markets tend to mean river which markets have a mean reverting characteristics right then I explain to you right the setup to create this type of mean reverting markets right so you really have the odds in your favor right applying the right trading setup in the right type of market condition okay so this is a mean reverting trading strategy that anyone can learn even if you have no trading experience so this is what you’ll get right as a pro traders each member right new container updated regularly for the backtest research lab weekly trade alerts premium strategy guides and much more right and also forum is coming up soon so you can interact with like-minded traders so I’ll put the link below so you can check out Pro traders hn and with that said right I hope you’ve enjoyed this video and I’ll talk to you soon


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