Home Trading Strategies Best Trading Opportunities (December 2019) | Price Action Trading Analysis

Best Trading Opportunities (December 2019) | Price Action Trading Analysis

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Best Trading Opportunities (December 2019) | Price Action Trading Analysis

hey hey what’s up my friend so welcome back to this month’s market analysis for December the final man of the year so in today’s video we are gonna do things a little different right so all my previous videos I usually no draw the levels the support resistance on my chatter ad but today this time around we will start from a blank shot so you kind of understand right how I interpret the price section of the market how do I make sense right out of this chaos the noise in the markets sounds good right if if you enjoy right this way of you know analyzing the markets comment below let me know your thoughts right and if it’s good right we will you know do this right for the coming videos as well for all the future monthly market analysis so to kick things off right the first market that I want to share with you first is euro dollar so if you look at this shot again right analysis based on a daily time frame you zoom out you notice that this market what is the market structure of euro dollar right now if you ask me it seems to be in a declining stage right in a downtrend where you see a series of lower highs lower highs lower highs lower highs and lower lows low lows lower lows lower lows and you know you can see numerous lower lows and the type of trend right there this is is what I call a weak trend why do I call this a weak trend is because when you pay attention to the pullback on euro dollar you notice that the pullback is pretty done steep right pulls back here here and here the Poobah is generally very steep it’s not like this top of strong trend with a pullback is shallow no this Poobah is pretty steep and for those of you who are familiar with the Fibonacci retracement you can just you know pull up your Fibonacci retracement to from swing high to swing low and you’ll notice that the pullback usually right hits at least a 6:1 ratio for for those of you who use Fibonacci retracement so again let me just just pull out an example to show you what I mean so FIB retracement where are you here okay and if I pull it from swing high swing low okay this swing low over here I just extended not to the swing low you’ll notice or there this market kick it out let me just drag it towards the right okay so I’m actually drawing to this swing louver here I notice that the retracement this one over here I almost are hitting the six money level okay so if you can do it for most of the week trend you realize that it tends to retrace towards a six one eight level or more so know now that you know that this market is in a downtrend the trend is weak the pullback is deep how do you treat it so this is where I want to draw or define my area of values so this way you know I draw up my support resistance so let me just draw the key levels that I’m seeing right now on this chart so right now what I’m seeing over here okay here possibly over here as well and yeah there are there are numerous level but you know let’s just keep to keep to this couple of levels for now since the nearest these are the nearest level right that the price could retest to in the coming coming weeks or even days so from the looks of things right you can see that this market okay I have drawn on this level over here it tested once twice right now we have a false bricks over here and over here with another test over here so it’s pretty much a level that’s respected by the market over here it has at once tested twice here is a more significant as to once twice and twice if i zoom out a little bit you can see any more any more times its tested right over here as well right retesting back towards at this breakout level right this breakout of this resistance over here price break out came back and retest back this previous resistance right this previous resistance that now becomes support so this definitely is another key level to be paying attention to so from the looks of things right since this market is still in a downtrend I want to be selling so where is a good area to be selling I would say right this level isn’t it’s a level or area you want to be paying attention to between the one dollar 1.

15 – 1.1 – area somewhere about here and if you pull on the 200 period moving average it’s just a simple moving average you realize something as well I’ll prove exponential we will have a look at the 200 period moving average is a longer term moving average typically I set it to black okay and you realize that this market right is respecting the 200 me as well tested ones over here twice tries and right now it’s at this level which has the confluence of this uh area of resistance that we have drawn earlier so this is definitely right a level you want to be paying attention to for the coming days or weeks so a simple way to trade it is what I call a false brick setup you can let the price right Trey here make a strong move into this area of resistance and then sudden reversal right closing below this loss of resistance so when that happens right traders who buy the break out of this highs they are now trapped because they buy the breaker and Mackey makes a reverse on it what what so they’re not trick right there in the red and where would this group of breakout traders set their stop-loss chances are you know somewhere here or them below this lows over here so as the price hits lower it’s gonna trigger this cluster of stop-loss right from breakout traders so this is how you can actually treat the Falls brick setup right when the price breaks above the highs it makes a sudden reversal closing back below this uh this resistance so as for targets as mentioned right this is an area to be looking at for a price test at once tester twice this is a potential area to be looking to take some profits off the table right for swing trading can take profits of this table and if you have you know two target so I target one target to your second target could be possibly at this area over here okay so this is a trade to be looking out for euro dollar moving on Euro Pound so again this one let’s get back to basics right let me just remove the 200m again I like to zoom things out right so I typically zoom about five to ten times right one two three four five six seven eight nine ten okay so it doesn’t really matter how many times you need to mark the main thing is that you want to see the big picture so from the looks of things alright in this market it seems to have you know just broke down of a range market is a long term range over here this highs this one here and this one over here so recently no this is really bad drawing so the let me just plot out the key level so and then you can see what I mean this one over here then another level over here pretty one over here and the recent one over here okay so you can see that generally this market pass broke down of this long thumb range and when he breaks down of this range right I want to be a sell right the the sellers are now in control and I’m looking sell in this market condition so now the question is where do you sell right so if you look at this chart where is the area of value I’d say right this right around 85 cents over here because the price is tested once twice three times broke down this is where previous support could not become resistance and this area over here so I’ll be paying attention to the 85 cents level I don’t have the tendency are to simply place a sell limit order at this level I very much prefer right to let the price retest the level right gets rejected by it right to let the market show signs of weakness before I take a short trade so the way I want to time my entries by going down to a lower timeframe for example the 8 hour time frame or the 4 hour time frame so let’s say I go down to the forward timeframe you can see that now the price section is much clearer and you know what to do exactly because your bias was actually you know receive right from the higher time frame you saw that earlier on on a daily time frame market broke down of the long term range you know that this over here it’s a key area where previous support become resistance this is an area where you want to be looking for selling opportunities all right and the beauty of using the lower timeframe to time your entries that you could get into the tree earlier right before the daily timeframe traders so this is how you should you know use multiple time frame in your trading so anyway where was I right it’s ok for our time frame so what I’m looking for is again just a very simple price rejection price to come up into this level comes up over here then again kind of like a false break right price breaks out could it couldn’t continue higher smashes true below this area of resistance and closed lower it right at this point right I want to be looking to sell this market and stop-loss or let’s talk about stop-loss where do you want to send your stop-loss do you want to set it just above this highs for me no right and the reason is because the price will come back into this area of resistance retest it again giving you something like a double top before it collapse lower that could be possible right double top triple top so this is why I like to set my stop loss away from this level right for example using the ATR indicator so an example I’m just pull it out this indicator ok Average True Range okay so this is an indicator that I talked about quite extensively if you study my past videos you don’t know why so you just pull out ATR indicator you realize that right now the volatility of the market is about 1718 pips so what you can do is if let’s say the market comes up into this sign gives you a false break and it closes near the lows you can take the ATR values let’s say it’s 20 pips are around here you add on 20 people 20 pips from this high so unless a Desai’s is a 85 cents so adding 20 pips to 85 cents your stop-loss will be about 0.

85 zero to about this level over here you’ll stop loss five zero two okay so this is where your stop loss will be which is I think eight five sorry eight five two right my bad it fight to zero which will be somewhere about here your stop-loss okay so in this case you will now have your entry your stop-loss what about targets so targets is something that is a it varies from trader to trade out whether you want to capture a swing or write a trend if you wanna capture a swing okay you want ask yourself right on this shot where on this shot might opposing pressure come in let me just hide this one here first we’re on this shot my opposing pressure coming and if you ask me right it’s obvious that this swing low is where potential buying pressure could come in price swings up higher comes down lower and let’s say he swings down lower this is an area where potential buyers come in you know to push the price higher this is a swing low so if you just want to capture a swing you don’t want to we know right too long of a trend this is definitely a potential area to exit your tree okay and for those of you who wants to write a longer-term trend you can write the trend on the daily timeframe you saw earlier right on a daily timeframe the price is still making a series of you know lower highs and lower lows and if you want to write the trend a way to do it is then you can use for example the 20-period moving average okay let me just give an example moving average okay and just change this to 20 period yeah mine is usually great color it’s kind of like pink but you know whatever okay so you can see that over here this is the 20-period moving average so if you’re gonna write the trend on a daily timeframe you can drill your stop-loss using the 20-period moving average so you only exited the trader if the price breaks in close above it so that’s another way to exit your trade right but this time around with the intention to write the trend alright so hopefully that that makes for you and finally alright another trading setup that I want to share with you is a pound yet so again daily timeframe let’s zoom out our chance right one two three four five six seven eight nine ten number ten so if you look at this shine right what is the price section of this market right now so long term wise if you look at this this seems to be in a range right market still you know pretty in this highs and possibly these lows over here and the market recently has brought up above this a market structure this highs over here so often right traders they will get confused on you know main training what should I be doing I shouldn’t be selling or should I be buying right if I wanna be buying here right now at this you know this this bullish short-term trend right but I’m going against this longer-term trend what should I do so here’s the thing right you have to ask yourself what is the duration of the traits that you wanna hold if you don’t hold it just for a few days all right then you definitely want to be trading a line with this current momentum over here right this is where the path of least resistance is but if you under you know kind of like you know your traits for months or even I know yours right then you want to pay attention to where the trend is in a longer term right in this case the longer the really long term what it seems to be still currently you know this a weak downtrend right we can you can connect this a trendline somewhere about here okay so really give the other self right what type of trader are you gonna you know for your traits for a while or much longer term so for me I don’t want my trades for for four years right so in this case I would be giving right more focus right towards this bullish string over here and looking to buy the dips okay so let’s now that we have our bias what we should be doing right we know what to do the next thing to note is that where are the areas of value that you want to be trading from right where my opposing pressure come in right where do you want to enter your trait so this is where support resistance comes into play so one thing I’ll see I see over here is here and this is a key level another one is possibly at this one over here the lows of this built up this a small tight range and also this one over here so now we have our levels drawn I could definitely draw more I possibly this lows and this one over here but it’s not gonna be too relevant for this this analysis we are doing because I don’t think in the next one monitor will retest these lows over here so let’s just focus right on the more immediate levels in fact I think there’s another one over here that it’s a wolf paying attention to as well okay this is a way you can see the price break below this this range there’s you know this area of support it broke down this could now possibly become a resistance as well so at this point what I’m looking for is again right I’m still bullish on this right because if you look at this market structure right higher loss is still intact higher lows and higher heights so the only time that I will you know go from bullish to buy beritra is if the price can break below this this area over here where the price can come down over here if it breaks down over here at this point I will have a lower high and low low if that happens I will shift my buyers from bullish to bearish so at this point in time right still bullish for now and where I’m looking to enter the trade the skid where is the area of value and from the looks of things I would say around here they 141 area is a area of value to be entering your traits from so let’s say you can go out onto the lower timeframe like in our time frame on the for what time frame right in this case I used to eat our time frame again the concept is the same I can look for a pullback a retracement back towards this swing low right market does a false break closing up strongly back above this this lows okay if that happens I’ll be looking to buy stop-loss can go 180 are below this low somewhere about here and small targets for swing trader this is a level that you want to be paying attention to for swing swing swing trades right where potential selling pressure could could come in right so this is a level you want to be paying attention to to exit your long tree okay so hopefully that gives you an idea right in terms of entries exits and stop-loss so those are three setups that I will be looking at for this coming week and before we end things so I just want to share with you a couple of treats I took we know losers right and you know what happened behind the scenes first one is dollar against the sing so for this market again this is a respond right I’m gonna look at it to me it was a long-term range so I let me just plot up my levels right plot on my levels here I would say another one here and at the point of time right I didn’t really consider this as a key level but what I notice is that the market actually deep traversed from this lows and we had somewhat of a inverse Head and Shoulders pattern over here so this to me seems be like a reversal where the price would possibly retest back this market structure okay so what happened is that at this point in time at this point right this was what happened market broke out higher and I was bullish on this right I saw that there was this inverse head and shoulders pattern right leaving against at this a minor level on the daily timeframe so I was bullish looking to buy this market and with the expectations that the price would possibly retest this this this level over here so what I did is I again I go down to the lower timeframe that’s what I mentioned earlier okay and it’s part of time what I saw is that again we had this uh this is the same inverse Head and Shoulders pattern you saw earlier this was the breakout of the neckline price break out came back retest and it gave me a false break setup so this is how a Falls brick setup look like right and uh at a point in time right it looks pretty good to me right price came down into this level right traded below this lows and close aggressively right above support so I went along on the next Kendall stop-loss 180 are below this low somewhere about here and what happened next is that the market just simply collapsed and I got stopped out of this straight for a loss okay so no issues with this this is a losses then I had put impossible of trading I don’t give you the expectations that there will be no losses that would be a lie so yep this is a loss for me on dollar Singh and the top process is actually very similar to what I just shared with you earlier so hopefully right this manages your expectations that no matter what I share no matter how good a setup looks there will be losses right so embrace it and finally you’re in the last market I want to share with you is New Zealand yen right so let me walk you through again right blank chart just zoom out a little bit right and the key thing that I was looking at is that this market again seems to be bottoming up over here right now we have this this one over here there’s just some simple levels to draw perhaps over here all right so let me just adjust this a little bit so I didn’t really fine-tune the levels to the exact PIP right because this is not what this video is all about if you don’t learn how to draw support resistance I got youtube videos for that or you can check that out but for now I’m just drawing off the key levels that you know stick up in my face and for this new zealand yen i you zoom or even more you’ll notice that this is uh okay this is a much but what I why I went bullish on this is that there was this potential reversal or this inverse head and shoulders pattern over here then coming to this area of resistance and if you recall right whenever I say you know when your might break up you might break up with a build-up and this is what I saw I saw that this this nice tight build up forming at the highs of resistance and and how do you know right some of you might be thinking hey Marie now how do you know when is the right time to be buying the highest of the build up how do you know when to buy the break up because it might be still too early and what I do is that I let the 20-period moving average be my guide so if we just pull out your 20 ma you notice that the 20 ma right hasn’t really come into contact with the laws of the price or it notice that it starts to kind of like you know support the price higher so this to me tells me that hey you know the market is ready to make another breakout right because for the 20 ma to touch the price right the market must consolidate long enough for that to happen and after this period of consolidation to me it’s getting ready to make the next wave of a breakup so what I did I simply have a buy stop order above the highs of this built up stop-loss again just 180 are below this loss somewhere here okay in this case the market did it broke out higher and right now seems to be consolidating so I’m just trilling my stop-loss on this right I’m using three ATR as my trailing stop loss and whether you know it’s a riding a monster trend where there’s a small trend or small losses I have no idea I’m just simply following my plane and before we end right I just want to share with you another thing right it’s that the way I manage my treat it’s different right another trader could what it could possibly do is that they buy the break out of this highs but maybe they don’t want to set their stops you know 180 are below this low maybe they think that you know if the price breaks out right and technically you shouldn’t even come back into this range and that’s fair enough right if you aren’t trading on the lower timeframe and you feel that hey this is a market structure that should hold you can actually have a tighter stop-loss for example let’s see one four hour time frame okay when the price broke out of this I saw this build up over here the price broke out your stop-loss could be just somewhere over here because you feel that if it breaks out you shouldn’t retest or come back into this area and that’s very not right net is something that you can do to manage this trade right for my shot on a short-term basis and in this case are your stop-loss is tighter and you could possibly no achieve a better restoring what may be a one to two one two three already as of right now okay so again there’s no right or wrong wait I mean there is no best way to trade the markets ultimately right you have to know how much time you can devote to your own trading right and then trading appropriate timeframe with the right expectations okay so so if so with that said right that’s that’s it for me for this month’s market analysis now if you’ve enjoyed the market analysis right now I want to welcome you to join pro traders each right this is my premium membership right where you will get such market analysis every 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