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Forex NFP Trading Strategy That Works

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Forex NFP Trading Strategy That Works

so one of the most common questions I get is this right hey Raina how to trade NFP how do I treat the news how do I know profit from FOMC and as you can see right now a question I got from Ken you need first aid services right here now can you make a video on how to trade the news Thanks and one thing that I want you to know is that whenever you’re trading news high impact news is that the market is rigged against you you are not playing on a level field right you are at a strong disadvantage and let me explain why during high impact news release right the market is in a low liquidity environment this means right that prior to the news release right traders they will pull out their orders away from the market so when they pull out orders from the market the spread in the market would widen okay there many you know pockets of get in the market now since there is no bit and offers anymore so when a spread widen in the futures market what happens in the spot market the one market that you’re treating your broker will also widen the spread because they need to protect themselves right because if not a B treasures were coming right and you know it will hurt their trading business so when the futures market currency futures the spread widen spot market the spread will also widen and in fact your broker tends to widen a spread even more than than a spread on the futures market all right all all because they want to protect themselves so when a spread whydid what happens well when a spread widens when a low liquidity environment right all you need is just a few orders to come in and the price will go crazy you’ll spike up and down just a few orders and you can push the market around so when the price goes up and down when it spikes up and down what happens you get stopped out if you know if you create during a dis market environment in fact let me explain right what I mean so you can see over here this one over here okay no not this shot okay so as you can see on this chart over here this is where the news is released over here nfe on euro dollar so you can see that price spikes down then it spikes up and it comes back down so imagine right traders who trade the news maybe you know prior to the news they are in the trade they have their stop-loss below this what happens well they get stopped out right price spike down lower they get stopped out or maybe traders who are shot prior to the new school they are stop-loss chances lies above this size what happens they get stopped out as well or maybe you know some traders they wait for news to come up with for the numbers to come up before they treat the direction of the breakout well what happens well we can see that over here price it broke down broke below the swing low and then the market comes down if you’re not first the market quickly reverse back up higher and you get stopped up as well then you look at and say okay maybe this time around the breakout is real right pricing on this timeline breaks above this highs look at how bullish the candle is look at how bullish this candle is all right this time the breakout has to be real then what happens price collapse you get stopped out again so this is what I mean by you know the market is rigged against you right during this low liquidity period spread wide and price spike and you get stopped out and not only that you lose even if you’re right what do I mean by this is that I’m sure you have you know seen this many times right when the price goes up on bad news the price can even go down on good news why is that well because news trading or it’s not as simple as hey good news right time to buy hey bad news time to shot no it’s not like that dry because as you’ve seen right price can go up on good news and can go down on good news I mean go up on bad news go down on good news so in reality right news trading is this you’re trading the expectations of the news release you’re trading right what people would react to the news release so if the news is bad by the expectation of the crowd is bullish right the price will go up and you need to trade dead expectations that of the other people right who are bullish that a price will go up so you can see that this over here trading expectations of the news release it’s near impossible because how are you going to know right how the crop will react to the news hey I don’t even know what I’m gonna eat for lunch tomorrow how can I even predict how people will you know react to a piece of news that’s going to come up so it’s actually I would say it’s near impossible right to to trade the expectations of the news release so given these two points on the market is Ricky you lose even if you’re right this is why I suggest that you know if you don’t know what you’re doing right don’t create the new stone trait NFP okay but for those of you who are you know still who wants to do it right then here are some tips that I have for Europe on how to trade nfe on how to treat the news by the way if you’re enjoying what you’re watching so far do me a favor hit that thumbs up button and subscribe to my youtube channel the link is below so do it right now okay so what first thing that you must know is number one know how the price moves so generally right whenever a piece of news release come out the price usually is like this right the market goes quiet for a while then it spikes up comes back down goes back up and then it goes a little bit quiet something like this right there are many variations to it but usually you know the market will keep you right you go see whips up and down and then it goes quiet a little bit so there are many variations it can be you know maybe instead of you know doing a spike up for cking spikes down spikes up come back then it goes quiet okay so there are a few variations to it or sometimes it can even let me share with you we can even you know spike up spike down you know spike up spike down spike up spike down and then it goes quiet something like that so you can see that whenever news come out high impact news the price tends to do a few whips off before it goes back to its normal market condition so bear this in mind right because you will see this a few times later on so the more is know how the price moves what I just share with you number two ignore the first move so whenever the news just come up there’s usually the first move the market is gonna make what its gonna break up higher or breakout lower I want you to ignore the first move two reasons number one is because doing this period right the spread is usually pretty wide if you look at your empty for Tommy know now your broker your spread is usually white during this period you don’t want to be trading when the spread is white because you’re down in nearly 20 to 30 people at the moment you you hit the buy order or a sell order so it’s not favorable to you okay and second thing is that as you’ve seen earlier if you know how the price moves you know that the first move is usually the fake move so don’t get suckered in right buddy the huge momentum candles because it’s usually the fake move so second tip I have for you is you know ignore the first move that thing right you want to wait at market structure so so don’t just chase the markets right in fact be patient and let the price come to you so what I mean by waiting market structure is this so let’s say you know prior to the news release that said market goes like this up down okay news release comes in any spikes up that comes back down then it goes back up like this and clear over here so over here right when the news is first release over here this is the first move you wanna ignore but when it comes back down right and over here let’s say this is a market structure maybe this is a swing low maybe this is an area of support right over here is where you look for buying opportunities right you want to wait a market structure because market structure is a frame of reference where you can use right to establish a position to enter the trade okay so this is what I mean by waiting market structure can be a trend line support resistance and etc so all this levels are you want to point before the news release so I don’t do it when a news is out because it’s too late already your levels have to be there right prior to the news release okay and fourth thing is that you want to trade the reversal so during news release it’s better to treat the reverse of not the break-up because the break up tends to be fake as you know what I’ve said with you earlier so this is how you would go about in your trading and news know how the price moves ignore the first move waiting market structure and treat the reversal so let’s have a look at a few examples shall we so over here right this is NFP on this is February first okay 9:30 NFP came out so if you just remember what I share with you right ignore the first move so this is the first move right ignore this because this usually you know it’s a fake one so second thing okay so you want to be waiting at market structure okay second things wicked we take a market structure so you know that this is a area of support so over here there’s this huge reversal that you see over here this is a possible setup for you to go along you can go long on a mixed candle open stop-loss might be below this low and try to no capture a swing doing the new so where you can possibly take profit this possibly at this highs over here okay so it would be something like this from a risk to reward standpoint let me just draw it out okay so maybe enter here to here this might be your reward it’s called our e and here to here might be your risk RI so you can see from a risk to reward standpoint is not even a one to one for this particular so-called trading setup okay however that is not the only setup that you might have right again over here you can see that the market at this highs it breakout then it reverse lowers over here you might consider you know going shot stop-loss above this highs again this is would be a risk from here to here would be a risk RI and here to here right might possibly not consider taking profits at this swing low might be a reward re so I don’t go to much you know into we know at rate management and stuff like that because it’s not possible to cover every aspect of it but there’s a couple of things for you to consider you know where when you want to set your stop loss and where might you want to consider taking profit before the opposing pressure comes in okay so this is one example of how you can treat the news release given the few tips I’ve shared with you so let’s have a look at a couple of more examples so now it’s a how about much right much viii okay so as you can see over here another news release over here 9:30 and FP okay so in this case right again I shared with you I don’t ignore the first move so this is the first move over here market at one point that was very bully trade although I became a Jeanette you know there’s this huge spike over here so at one point in time okay this candle this candle is actually a big huge ass bullish candle I say right ignore the first move so if you ignore this first move you wouldn’t have gotten caught on the wrong side of this this trade over here where you know traders are buying buying buying buying until the absolute highs then it collapsed lower okay so ignore the first move second they wait for the price to come to market structure in this case there wasn’t really you know market structure that the price came in to maybe possibly the only one I can see over here is this this one over here where price come into this swing low other than that not really anything and for the opposite side it would be this one over here price coming into this this area of resistance this swing high so this are in a couple of it levels right that you can look for trading opportunities okay entries and exits trade management again it’s really up to you but hopefully the examples that I share with you right letting the price reverse first right setting your stops all right beyond the levels and then considered considering taking profits right before opposing pressure comes in so let’s say for example go along over here stop-loss below this low right where would opposing pressure come in so you know that this is a swing high chances are sellers might be looking over here this is a pretty good level to consider taking profits likewise you know if you are shot at this area of resistance and the highs where would potential buying pressure come in chances are might be at this swing low over here so this one depending how you manage the trade if you didn’t exit fast enough it might be even be a losing trade as the price you know release higher okay so one more example show it so let’s look at a January January 4th ok so I think there’s a no last available bar none available let’s go to the 15 minutes time frame January 4th ok another one example nfe so remember what I said ignore the first move so over here this is the first move price came down lower in this case right it did no trickle down low for quite a bit before the reversal came so for those of you who create the breakdown you might have some profits along the way but again if you if you hold on for too long right that’s the the second move coming right and it would you know wiped up all your profits as the reversal came so you can see that again the how the price move right news release come not swinging up up down like this right so similar to what I just shared with you earlier ok they did you know whips or price action so in this case I would say I wouldn’t know how you know you would be able to get on board the trade so market structure if you ask me would be somewhere here and somewhere here so for this one the price clearly didn’t come deep into this market structure enough you may or may not enter the trade then as it spike up higher this over here possible opportunities to go short right near the highs of this swing high ok so this is a how you know you can go about trading the news so let’s do a quick recap right number 1 don’t treat the news if you don’t know if you don’t know what you are doing this I would say is really for professional traders traders who can who are glued to the screen right most of the time ok this is what professional traders do they they can trade the news because they are glued to the screen of the time but for retail traders who I know doing this Leno with a full-time job you don’t have time to you know be watching the markets all the time don’t do this but if you still choose to you know want to treat the news then here are some tips to bear in mind number one know how the price moves right this is so important so as mentioned the price usually it’s quiet before the news it spikes up down swing up and then it goes quiet sometimes it may just you know goes quiet string up down and just go quiet so there are many variations to it sometimes it might swing you know a couple of more times or sometimes you might just go quiet so whatever the case is right bear in mind that you know it would you know always chop and chop up and down I’m one say always but usually it chops up and down right you wring a high impact news release and then you wanna ignore the first move because the first move is usually not the real move the real move is usually the reversal and where you can look to create a reversal that market structure support resistance swing high swing low etc and once price comes into this market structure you can look to trade the reversal could be you know just bearish I mean a reversal candlestick patterns alright to help you time your entry into the into the tree okay so that’s a pretty much it if you want to learn more okay about what I do my trading methodology and stuff like that go down to my website trading with Rainer come over here the link and then I would say recommend downloading this guide over here price action trading ultimate guide to price action trading it will complement right the what you’ve just learned earlier about you know news trading market structure support resistance this guy is huge complement to it just click this orange button and I’ll send it to your email address for free so just go and download this guide on my website and any questions feedback let me know if you’ve enjoyed this video hit that thumbs up button and subscribe to my youtube channel the links are below so with that said I wish you good luck and good trading I’ll talk to you soon you

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