Home Trading Strategies Price Action Trading Analysis (August)

Price Action Trading Analysis (August)

Price Action Trading Analysis (August)

hey hey what’s up my friend so welcome back to this month’s price action analysis so this is where i identify trading opportunities in the markets and share with you my thought process you know what i’m looking at what i’m looking to trade where am i buying why am i selling and stuff like that so basically to get an insight right into you know how i look at the markets and how i trade it all right so this is all based on a real-time chart it’s not going to be cherry pick charts like like some of my other trading videos this is trading in the now right i could be right i could be wrong and i’m here to you know just share it all with you in this video so if that is something that you would like right then today’s uh video is for you so first thing first right let’s have a look at pound new zealand so from the looks of this chart right uh to traders looking at this chart you might be low looking to sell right hey rainer you know i know what you’re thinking right now you are looking to sell at previous resistance that could become support now i i don’t blame you because if you were to just look at this chart right that might be your thought process all right but as you know when i trade right i always use multiple time frame analysis i like to understand where i am in the big picture so if you just go up one time frame higher like the weekly you would realize that this market is actually still in a long-term uptrend it is uh forming a series of higher highs and higher lows higher lows lows higher low higher low and on top of it it had a bounce of this upward trend line and this area of support over here so this to me is a key area of value on the chart why is that because we have this confluence of this upward trend line as well as this area of support over here which will be more visible as you see right on the uh the daily time frame over here right this area of support okay this area of support so now the question is you know where do we enter right that’s always the question right where where do we enter so now that we understand right that the higher time frame is in an uptrend it has just had a bounce of the area of value all right now is where we are looking for an entry trigger to get long so now ask yourself right do you want to be buying at this price point so over here do you want to be buying here if you’re going to do that right then where is the next logical level to set your stop loss if you ask me right the nearest level to set your stops has to be below this swing low over here which is pretty done far away from here all the way down to here very far so that’s not what i’m looking for that’s not what i want to do so what i’ll do instead is i’ll go down to a lower time frame like the eight hour time frame and look for bullish trend continuation move right to signal to me that this market still wants to go up higher so what i’ll do is i just simply simply pull out the 20ma okay you can see that the price is still trading above the 20ma i want to see a pullback okay possibly towards the 20ma forming something like a blue flag pattern so at this point the 20ma would have you know caught up with the lows of the flag pattern so when that happens right right now we have this pullback so when the price let’s say it goes up higher and breaks above this highs i will look to buy a buy stop order above this highs and my stop loss so i can just go below the low of the flag pattern let’s say the low of the flag pattern is somewhere about here can go 180 r below it somewhere about here so now i have a much more logical place to set my stop-loss i can actually reference the uh low of the flag pattern right to set my stop loss compared to earlier you know referencing from this low over here so this is where i need the market to uh give it time right to unfold the price action structure right that i can use it to reference to to set my stop loss now some of you also might be thinking but right now you know aren’t you concerned that you might be buying into this area of previous resistance that could become support and yes that’s a valid thought right but here’s the thing right my thought process is this right is that i am trading with the higher timeframe trend which as you’ve seen earlier on the weekly timeframe i’m trading in line with the higher timeframe trend and if this trend were to continue up higher then what is likely to happen is that whatever swing highs right that are in my way like this swing high this swing high chances are is that they will break meaning the price will break out of it right so assuming that my hypothesis my assumption is correct right i would expect these levels or rather i would expect the price right to break out of this level so this is why i am willing right to just buy in front of this uh this resistance over here right expecting that it would break since i’m actually trading in the direction of the long-term trend okay i hope that makes sense uh moving on next one dollar against the sync right currency that’s near to home so again big picture analysis uh let’s look at the daily time frame you can see that over here this market we have broke right below this key area of support let me just zoom out even further we can see this area here okay so previously we had a resistance resistance previous resistance become support tested once twice and now we have a breakdown so what is my plan right so again simple i trade along the path of least resistance price has broke below key area of support price is making a series of lower highs and lower lows lower highs lower high lower high lower high lower low lower low lower low lower low so i will be looking to sell okay so now the question is where do you sell okay so this is where we establish our area of value so a couple of ways you can do it first thing first you can go up to the eight hour time frame right and look for selling opportunities at this area right where previous resistance could become support sorry previous support could become resistance over here this would be my first uh area of value to look for selling opportunities uh what to look for is very simple a re-test price will hit up higher right and then make a sudden reversal like closing near the lows of this candle so it comes up into this area of value and then make a sudden reversal down lower closing near the lows of the candle what i’ll do is then i’ll go short on the next candle open stop loss or i can just go one atr above this highs right so with the expectations that this market could continue down lower as we’ve seen right there the overall trend is towards the downside that’s the first uh thing i’ll be looking for alternatively on a daily time frame right if you pull out the 20ma you can see that uh this market another option is that you could form a booth like that sorry a bare flag pattern right like this okay price hit up higher reflect pattern 20 hits down lower so if the price then breaks down breaks below this low i could look to sell the break of this swing low okay in anticipation of lower prices to come so that is second option right so couple of ways uh you could look to short this market for the dollar against this thing and by the way right whatever i’m sharing over here this video it’s solely for educational purposes only so whether you make money whether you lose money it’s your responsibility i believe you can agree with that right so don’t don’t come after me you know if you lose money right now i follow your recommendation and i lost money come on man you’re grown up you’re an adult take responsibility right so likewise right even if you make a profit i don’t expect you to hand me 50 down to my account because you make a profit okay so moving on uh next one bitcoin all right so bitcoin again right let’s look at it from a big picture analysis right let’s look at let’s say the weekly time frame we can use either the daily or the weekly time frame for big picture analysis that’s that’s for me at least so you can see that bitcoin it has broke out of this area of resistance right so prior to the breakout we have this a volatility contraction pattern over here and to be honest right i was actually expecting a breakdown let me explain why but in this case i’m wrong so as i mentioned i do get wrong from time to time right so you can see that why i was expecting a breakdown is because i noticed a series of lower highs coming into this area of support so series of lower highs into an area of support and as as for those of you of you who have been following me right you know when we see a descending triangle at resistance right that’s usually a sign of weakness right telling you that you know the buyers have difficulty pushing up the price higher that’s why you have this lower high lower high lower high but in this case right clearly i’m proven wrong the market broke out higher even up above resistance okay so my analysis or rather what i expect the market to do didn’t happen right so now as a trader you’re gonna be fluid you have to adjust all right according to market conditions and right now at this point in time the market is spoken right it wants to hit higher prices broke above this area of resistance so i am bullish right now on bitcoin and how am i going to trade this so so again right what you can look for is for a trading setup let’s say on the four hour time frame or the eight hour time frame either or okay you can look for a re-test right the re-test of this previous resistance that could become support the price would swing down lower do a false break close bullishly back above support and then go along on the next candle open stop loss can you just go one atr below this lows possible targets could be at this swing high and this swing high over here so can you see how this top process flow first and foremost we get our buyers on the higher time frame second thing we look for is for the price to come to an area of value right where we can trade from the third thing we look is for an entry trigger that you know stops and uh exits right if the market moves in your favor so pretty pretty simple stuff okay uh and just one last thing right let’s talk about goal and the reason why i want to talk about goals that you know i have seen no comments on twitter you know where people’s barber are looking to buy coal recommending people to buy gold or even say stuff like you know if you’re not holding gold right you are not doing a justification to your own financial well-being yada yada so clearly a lot of bullish sentiments out there for commodities gold and silver but as a trader right what we’re looking for again right is valid trading setups right that we can take advantage of and if you look at this chart right now right the daily or even the weekly you can see that this market has gone parabolic it’s overextended and at this point in time you don’t want to be buying gold at least not on the weekly time frame okay or rather let’s talk about the daily timeframe since there’s a time frame that’s more applicable to to many of you right trade off the daily time frame because let’s say if you were to buy gold right now at this price point where is the logical place to set your stop loss if you ask me the nearest price structure is possibly below this swing low or this previous resistance that can support these two levels so these two levels are where i would say it’s logical right to set your stop loss but the problem with it is that the size of your stop-loss will be pretty done large like you know looking at maybe 300 400 gold so what’s the plan now so what you can do is again right again use the 20ma as a guide because in this market you can see that goal right seems to be respecting uh 20ma tested once twice a false breakdown over here and then it has been constantly above the 20ma so what i’m looking for now is again right for the 20ma to catch up with the price so going up higher right and at the same time i won’t go to take a breather i don’t want it to continue moving up higher because it will get even more overextended so i wanted to take a breather take a pause to breathe in right breathe in to stop potential energy right for the next move higher maybe okay so how would that look like on the chart so what i’m looking for is for goal to consolidate right stop moving going higher right consolidated give it time to rest so i want gold to consolidate for the next you know five to ten candles or maybe the next few candles it starts to consolidate so at this point right now i have something that looks like a blue flag pattern again a trend continuation pattern and ideally right on the pullback on the consolidation i want the range of the candles to be small like this right small nice cute range candles small range candles i don’t want the pool back right to be so large like this stuff with large big bullish candles right because if you imagine if the pullback is big and bearish like this size you can see that you could be gonna be and i don’t want to be you know buying the break out of this heist if the pullback here is so steep i have other plan of action but not you know buying the break out of the flag pattern okay so if i’m trading this bull flag pattern i want it to be nice and small to pull back the range of the pullback then if the 20ma catch up with the price if the price were to break above this highs now i can look to get long stop loss and now can reference right the low of this flag pattern right to set my stop loss and one thing to point out is that understand right that right now at this stage of this gold market if you look at the weekly time frame it is overextended so if i do get an entry trigger to go long i’m not gonna stay too long in the trade right you know try to you know get like a thousand dollar price point move on go no i will trim trill my stop loss tightly so this means right let’s say if it consolidates okay then the price breaks out all right if it breaks out and i buy i will trail my stop-loss right using the previous payload so when the price breaks and closed below the previous day low i’m out of this gold trade so i’m just looking to capture that burst of momentum right if it wins if it starts to you know show signs of uh tiredness weakness i’m out of the trade because as you’ve seen right in this market right now if you just pull out the 20 on the weekly timeframe it is way overextended way above right the 20ma which is over here this area of value okay so it’s quite overextended at this point in time i don’t want to stay in the trade too long right because when the pullback comes right you know it could easily easily retrace you know 300 or more right back at least to this 20ma over here so that’s my my plan for for gold all right now if you’ve enjoyed the market analysis right then i want to welcome you to join pro trader sage right this is my premium membership right where you will get 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